O'Ward fastest in first practice, but Palou also quick as IndyCar weekend gets underway.

Scott Dixon rolls his eyes and grins. “I guess,” he says to the fact that he is still in contention for the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series championship—at least mathematically.

“I need some miracles,” he adds.

Entering the Java House Grand Prix of Monterey, three drivers are clinging to the tatters that Alex Palou in the no. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda have made of the season. Dixon—Palou’s Chip Ganassi teammate in the no. 9 PNC Bank Honda—sits 174 points back. Kyle Kirkwood, driver of the no. 27 JM Bullion Andretti Honda is 173 points in arrears. 

Perhaps the only potential challenger remaining is no. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet pilot Pato O’Ward, at 99 points behind.

With just three races remaining following this weekend at WeatherTech Racing Laguna Seca, the magic number is 162. Any driver who trails Palou by that number heading into Portland will be out of the running.

“It’s going to take me winning everything from here on out, and some bad luck for Alex,” Kirkwood says. “It’s not a very realistic chance.”

Those are the numbers. Still, as race weekend opened with the first practice session on Friday, all IndyCar teams entered the unknown.

A year ago, the Laguna Seca round was IndyCar’s last in a gas-fueled engine. The series’ new hybrid powerplant was launched immediately after. (Note that IndyCar began using 100 percent renewable fuel starting in 2023.)

The hybrid system makes the car heavier, something that engineers—and tires, for that matter—don’t particularly like. While the teams have simulated the new systems at Laguna Seca, Friday’s first practice session was the first chance to test setup changes under race conditions.

“We need to see what the weight distribution is going to be,” Palou says.

Despite a morning drizzle, the 11-turn, 2.23-mile track was dry for the practice session. O’Ward recorded the fastest lap at 1:09.2, a tenth quicker than Colton Herta in the no. 26 Gainbridge Andretti Honda.

But Palou was at or near the top throughout the session. And in the end there was little difference between the top 5.

Marcus Armstrong’s no. 66 SiriusXM Meyer Shank Racing Honda ticked the clock just 1 ten-thousandths slower than Herta for the third fastest lap, also in the 1:09.3s. Palou and Callum Ilott, in the no. 90 Prema Racing Chevrolet, rounded out the top 5 at 1:09.3 and 1:09.6, respectively. 

Kirkwood logged the seventh-fastest lap at 1:09.9. Dixon struggled, ending up 24th fastest out of 27 cars. Three red flags marred the session.

A second practice session precedes qualifying on Saturday.

The drivers anticipate a wider racing lane and more tire degradation for Sunday’s race. Two years after the track was repaved, it is beginning to wear.

In the 2023 and 2024 events, the track was record-fast—Christian Lundgaard broke the mark in 2023’s qualifying round with a lap clocked at 1:06.461—and made passing a challenge.

“The last two years we’ve seen some crazy strategies,” Dixon says, adding that surface wear will make for better racing.

Palou’s win in 2024 was the result of a mid-race strategic roll of the dice.

Since then it has been almost all Palou. The returning series champion has won 7 of the 13 races heading into the weekend, with 10 top 5 finishes. O’Ward, Dixon and Kirkwood are the only other drivers to collect victories this year.

“They’ve done a really good job,” Kirkwood observes. “The car has been extremely fast. It’s hard to compete.”

It will take an unlikely series of events to prevent Palou from hoisting the trophy even before the season finale in Nashville. In 2010, Dario Franchitti climbed back from a 59-point deficit to claim the championship. Scott Dixon whittled down a 54-point gap in 2015.

Those have been the largest points leads overcome in recent IndyCar history.

But it takes a veteran driver to put in perspective there has been anything like it in the past.

“I say no, but Dixon had some years that were similar, where it seemed like he was winning every race,” says Graham Rahal, driver of the no. 15 WWEX Group Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda, recalling the years that led to Dixon’s six titles. In his six years on the IndyCar series, Palou has three championships.

“Alex is really damn good.”

Hauger looks to extend Indy NXT lead.

Dennis Hauger has been equally dominant in the developmental Indy NXT series, with 5 wins in 9 starts. He enters the weekend at Laguna Seca with a 76-point advantage over Andretti teammate Lochie Hughes.

It is a double-header weekend for the Indy NXT teams, with races on Saturday and Sunday. There will be a lot of points on offer for both drivers.

Hauger says the goal from the start of the season has been to win the championship. “But a goal is one thing, making it happen is another,” he adds. “There are still a few races left.”