UPDATED: Monterey County is not part of new Covid-19 regional stay-at-home order just yet.

Faced with an expected surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths that could overtax the state’s hospitals, Gov. Gavin Newsom said today he is “pulling the emergency brake” by issuing a new stay-at-home order that will go into effect based on ICU capacity by region. For now, Monterey County, part of the San Francisco Bay Area region, is not looking at such an order, but it could within the next two to three weeks.

The state’s other four regions—Northern California, Greater Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California—are about to shut down for at least three weeks as early as the next day or two. Some of the restrictions experienced in March would go into effect, like take-out and deliveries only from restaurants, hair and nail salons closing, as well as other personal care services closing. Non-essential travel would not be allowed during the three-week period, nor would gathering with anyone from other households.

Schools with waivers would remain open. Retail stores would at least have some reprieve in the lead up to the holidays, being able to remain open with up to 20-percent capacity. Hotels would remain open for essential travel. Other closures would include playgrounds, family entertainment centers and overnight campgrounds. Work should be done remotely if possible.

The decision to impose the regional stay-at-home order on any of the state's five designated regions will be triggered if that region’s ICU bed capacity falls below 15 percent. The four regions about to shut down are close to that level. It was not immediately known what the exact ICU numbers were for each region. A Monterey County spokesperson said it appears that reporting by region has yet to be posted.

UPDATE: In the evening hours after Newsom's announcement, the state posted a map of the five regions with the latest percentages reflecting capacity remaining in ICUs in each region. The Bay Area region (of which Monterey County is a part) was listed at 25.3-percent capacity remaining, the highest in the state. The lowest available ICU capacity is in the Northern California region, with 18.6 percent. The San Joaquin Valley region, of which San Benito County is a part, was listed at 19.7-percent ICU capacity remaining.

Hospital officials told Monterey County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday that the county has sufficient beds and equipment. But the recent surge is "stretching our capacity," said Allen Radner, Chief Medical Officer of Salinas Valley Memorial hospital.

Newsom laid out the case for the new order based on “pre-Thanksgiving numbers” showing that the state’s case numbers, test positivity rates and hospitalization rates continue to rise even before those infected over Thanksgiving start materializing. In the past 14 days, said Newsom, the state’s positivity rate rose from 5.2 percent to 7 percent per 100,000 residents and its hospitalization rate grew by 86 percent. ICU admissions were up 67 percent.

Monterey County’s test positivity rate has nearly doubled in the last couple of weeks, from 6.1 percent to 11.44 percent. There were 48 people hospitalized on Nov. 19, with nine in the ICU. As of yesterday there were 82 hospitalized and 17 in the ICU. Cases have risen over by over 2,200 in the same period, as of this morning at 15,765. Deaths in Monterey County have gone up by 15 to 128.

Citing Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, Newsom said those infected over Thanksgiving will create a surge on top of an existing surge that could strain hospitals.

“The bottom line is if we don’t act now our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” Newsom said. “If we don’t act now we’ll continue to see the death rate continue to climb, more lives lost.”

Newsom highlighted what people can do during the stay-at-home order, saying caring for mental health is as important as caring for physical health. He presented a list of outdoor activities allowed including walking, running, hiking, visiting parks and beaches, fishing, skiing and outdoor fitness classes. Yoga and meditation were on the list. The key part is to do those activities only with members of the same household.

Newsom also talked about the coming availability of vaccines, outlining how an initial 327,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines will be distributed, with more coming in subsequent months. The first batch will go to medical workers. 

“You'll be hearing good news on top of other good news, more vaccines will be arriving, January, February, March, more and more individuals will be availing themselves the opportunity to take the vaccine,” he said.