State Sen. John Laird, newly appointed to chair the budget committee, braces for a tough year.

How would you spend $348.9 billion? Sara Rubin here, eager to see how our state lawmakers answer that question—and first, how much they agree there really is to spend. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom released his proposed budget last Friday, Jan. 9, with a very rosy outlook. His budget team is forecasting more than $42 billion in additional general fund revenue over a three-year window. 

I checked in with State Sen. John Laird, D-Santa Cruz, about the governor’s celebratory proposal. Laird is newly appointed to chair the Senate budget committee, and he spent the weekend poring over the governor’s proposal. 

His immediate take: “There are a bunch of potential landmines.” He was particularly concerned about how to lower unemployment insurance debt ($20 billion) and paying off a loan for education increases, instead of deferring those payments.

Broadly, Laird is less optimistic in his budget outlook than the governor. “[Newsom] believes current revenues could allow us to balance the budget in the current year without major cuts, but we are still projecting big deficits in the out years. That’s our challenge is making sure we don’t balance the budget this year at the expense of next year,” Laird says. 

Laird has the right mindset in approaching something so big and unwieldy. He says it’s generally wise to shave a little bit here and there, instead of cutting programs entirely, keeping them rolling. The legislative analyst’s office projects an economic downturn in the next 18 months, something the governor’s analysis does not account for. While it’s impossible to know the future with certainty, Laird is approaching the budget cautiously—preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. 

“We are in not easy budget times right now,” he says. “When you have fiscal challenges is when you do your best work—we are trying to protect the basic social safety net and services the state does, while at the same time trying to be fiscally responsible.”

That is not an easy balance to strike, but Laird says he’s enthusiastic about taking on the challenge. In a way, this leadership role is a return for him; he chaired the Assembly budget committee back in 2004-08, leading up to the Great Recession. 

There are multiple budget proposals ahead—the governor’s proposal is just round one, and the Legislature will answer, then they’ll negotiate. But certain core values are in place.

As Newsom wrote in his budget introduction, “This January budget is not the final word. It is a beginning—a statement of purpose. In the months ahead, we will work together to refine a final budget that looks beyond a single year, mindful of the obligations to the people we serve.”