There are thunderstorms, dry lightning and changing wind direction in the forecast, prompting evacuation orders of nearly 20,000 people in Monterey County as firefighters work to control three wildfires that began since Sunday, Aug. 16.
The area of Carmel Valley Village (on both side of Carmel Valley Road) and the east side of Laureles Grade from Carmel Valley Road to Highway 68 were placed under evacuation advisory on Friday evening, and at 9am Saturday morning, officials ordered people to evacuate. In a briefing at 11am Saturday, Monterey County Sheriff Steve Bernal said people have all day to gather their things and evacuate by tonight, before a new weather system blows in overnight.
"We want to give everyone plenty of time," he said, acknowledging the limited number of roads out of the area.
"We don’t want people to panic. This is precautionary, this is based on the weather coming in. You have time today to gather your belongs, not panic and make your way out of the evacuation order zones," Bernal said.
Around 10am, officials announced an expansion of the evacuation advisory area to go further west. This area stretches from Highway 68 in the north south to Carmel Valley Road and well beyond to Rancho San Carlos in the Santa Lucia Preserve. To the west, the evacuation advisory extends along Highway 68 to York Road and Camino Saucito; on Carmel Valley Road the advisory area extends from Laureles Grade west to Rancho San Carlos Road on the south side of Carmel Valley Road, and to Canada de la Segunda on the north side.
The area to the southeast of the River Fire, to Arroyo Seco Road on the south, remains under evacuation advisory, meaning people there should be packed and prepared for potential orders.
In a virtual public meeting on Friday night, Aug. 21, Cal Fire Incident Cmdr. Nick Truax called on members of the public to cooperate with evacuation orders. “I really ask that you heed these warnings and take them seriously," he said. "We do not know what these thunderstorms are going to do."
That was roughly 15 hours ago, when evacuation advisories had just been issued. "We are giving a warning because we feel weather conditions could get worse," Bernal said. "I’d be packing my stuff right now. If it does turn into and order, we’re going to have to move fast."
The National Weather Service has a fire weather watch in effect from 5am tomorrow morning, Sunday, Aug. 23, until Tuesday for potential dry lightning strikes. While the wind forecast is generally light, the NWS notes "erratic gusty winds 40 to 65 mph may accompany stronger thunderstorms."
"Lightning will likely spark new fires across the region, including remote areas. Wildfires in remote regions may not become apparent until warmer and drier conditions allow them to grow," according to NWS.
In the Saturday morning briefing, Cal Fire meteorologist James Dudley said the storms do not appear to be headed directly for the Carmel and River fires, but the evacuation orders as a precaution. "We don’t see a big storm taking a beeline on the fire right now, but the threat of storms forming and moving into the area tomorrow is certainly real," Dudley said.
We are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
"The fires we’ve been working on are definitely looking better," Truax said. "Hopefully this [coming weather] does not change things on us."
The River and Carmel fires have been mostly active in the afternoons and early evenings, said Don Watt, a fire behavior analyst for Cal Fire in Friday night's briefing.
In Big Sur, evacuation orders remain in effect for the area of Partington Ridge to Lucia, where the Dolan Fire is burning at zero-percent containment.
As of Saturday morning, Cal Fire officials report the River Fire has destroyed 16 structures, up from 10 yesterday, and the Carmel Fire has destroyed 32 structures, up from 28. Fire officials do not distinguish between homes or garages, sheds and other outbuildings in these counts.
Click here to view more details on the county's 24-hour shelters and day center for evacuees.

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