International Cap on Global Temperature Rise Won't Avert Catastrophe, Stanford Expert Warns

Worry more about climate change. But don't worry so much about peak oil. These are the messages from two different papers recently out of Stanford University.

Stanford professor Chris Field, lead scientist for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warns that the international goal of holding the average global temperature rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (or 2 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels—embraced by enviro groups worldwide, adopted by the 120-plus countries that signed the 2010 U.N. Cancun Agreement and reaffirmed at a United Nations climate conference in Germany last month—only perpetuates a false sense of security in the face of catastrophic climate change. 

A "2C" temperature rise isn't a safe cap for the planet, Field warns, and instead only serves to cloud the public understanding of the dangers of climate change.

"The concept of a safe threshold is a myth and tends to distract attention from evidence that we are already seeing widespread and consequential impacts of climate change," says Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology at Stanford.

"A frustratingly large amount of the dialogue on climate change risks pointing people away from smart solutions by making the problem seem either simpler or more complicated than it really is."

The average global temperature has risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since humans started burning fossil fuels in the mid-1800s, and models predict it's continuing to rise exponentially.

In related research, a recent paper in Environmental Science & Technology by Stanford and UC Santa cruz researchers finds that fears of "peak oil"—the moment in time when oil production will peak, then supplies will plummet, followed by global chaos—are overblown. 

The scientists expect global oil demand to start declining on its own (that is, before production peaks) by 2035.

"The historical connection between economic growth and oil use is breaking down—and will continue to do so—because of limits on consumption by the wealthy, better fuel efficiency, lower priced alternative fuels and the world's rapidly urbanizing population," a Stanford press release states.

 The study predicts global oil demand through 2100 under a number of different variables. You can play around with the model, inputting your own assumptions, on the study's website.