Meridian Clinical Research, an Omaha firm, is enrolling patients at eight sites for the phase three clinical trial launched Monday for an experimental vaccine for COVID-19.

With new cases of COVID-19 and the number of hospitalized patients both hitting highs not seen since spring, University of Nebraska Medical Center pandemic experts warned that Nebraskans need to double down on efforts to slow transmission of the novel coronavirus or face a difficult fall and winter.

“The important thing that needs to be noted here is we’re not out of the woods yet on coronavirus,” said John Lowe, assistant vice chancellor for health security at UNMC.

Both the state and Douglas County have almost doubled their daily new case counts since early September, according to COVID Act Now.

On Sept. 7, Nebraska was averaging 241 new cases a day over a seven-day period. On Wednesday, the state was averaging more than 469 new cases a day.

The state’s cases landed it at No. 11 among the 50 states for new cases. Iowa’s case counts, which have also been increasing, put it at No. 6.

Dr. Ali Khan, dean of UNMC’s College of Public Health, issued a “severe #COVID19 warning” in a tweet on Saturday.

“Best to stay home and avoid crowds. If going out, please remember to wear a mask especially in indoor places. Unlike the President, you will not have access to novel drugs, Marine 1 as an ambulance, and an army of doctors,” Khan said, referencing President Donald Trump’s recent COVID-19 diagnosis.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told lawmakers Friday that the nation is facing increasing cases in the Upper Midwest and farther west — mentioning specifically Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana — that are canceling out some of the decreases in the Southwest and Southeast.

Douglas County is on a similar trajectory. On Sept. 7, it was averaging almost 67 new cases a day. On Wednesday, the county was averaging almost 133 cases.

On Friday, the average daily count of new cases, based on Douglas County Health Department data, was at 143 for the week, up from 109 a week ago and 89 the week before that.

John Lowe

John Lowe

But Friday’s tally of 186 cases included 50 cases that had been delayed by a cyberattack on Nebraska Medicine.

Hospitalizations across the state have been steadily increasing since July 18, Lowe said, with a 20% increase since Sept. 22. On Thursday, 226 Nebraskans were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the state’s online data dashboard.

“These are all indicators we’re headed in the wrong direction,” Lowe said.

In Douglas County, the upswing is particularly worrisome, considering it comes in the face of measures that should be helping to limit a rise.

The City of Omaha has mandated masks in indoor public spaces since mid-August, which health officials have credited with helping slow the virus’s spread. In addition, the Omaha Public Schools, with 54,000 students and roughly 9,000 employees, have been conducting classes remotely since the start of the school year. The bulk of those students will make their way back to in-person classes this month, with elementary and middle school students returning next week.

The increases in cases and hospitalizations also come at a time when hospitals are busier, said Dr. James Lawler, a director of the Global Center for Health Security at UNMC.

Dr. James Lawler (copy)

James Lawler

Hospitals across the state canceled most elective procedures in the spring to clear space so they could manage a COVID-19 surge and avoid the kind of overrun seen in New York City facilities. But hospitals can’t simply clear out patients now for a variety of reasons, Lawler said.

Health officials have also noted that tallies of available hospital and ICU beds do not consider the availability — or fatigue levels — of doctors, nurses and other staff needed to care for patients, particularly in ICUs.

Another concern cited by health officials is the approaching cold weather that will soon end outdoor gatherings that have allowed people to mingle at lower risk. Winter’s return also marks the onset of cold and influenza season. That has raised concerns about the burden a “twindemic” of coronavirus and influenza could place on the health care system. It also poses the challenge of diagnosing multiple ailments with similar symptoms.

When asked Thursday evening on NET about the state’s high hospitalization number, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts said the state is in a much better position than it was in May. Health care providers have learned more about caring for COVID-19 patients, and the state has more protective gear, testing and contact tracing available.

Ricketts noted that fewer than 5% of hospital beds and a little more than 10% of ICU beds in Omaha are filled by COVID-19 patients. In Lincoln, about 16% of hospital beds and 11.7% of ICU beds are being used by coronavirus patients. Ricketts said the state is working with hospitals on planning, including staffing.

Pete Ricketts mug (copy)

Pete Ricketts

The governor was also asked whether locales with lower available hospital capacity, such as Douglas County, should be implementing stricter regulations.

“It’s certainly one of the things we’re looking at,” he said. But he said it’s not unusual for hospitals to run at 90% of capacity.

Lowe said the increase in cases and hospitalizations should cause people to look back to see what was happening a few weeks ago when people were exposed to the virus and think about what needs to change to make things safer.

“Our concern is not driving us to recommend closing things down,” he said. “But we really need to promote vigilance in adhering to wearing masks, keeping distance and not having large gatherings.”

Researchers think that it is large gatherings, including at schools, universities, places of worship and events, that are contributing to the increase. Colleges and universities have been linked to increasing cases in college towns. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln, for instance, reported 142 cases over the past 14 days, with a total of 784 since Aug. 12.

Lawler has been examining how the virus moves through communities. He has seen that infections tend to surge initially among young people, then move up through the age brackets, reaching people in their 70s and 80s about six weeks later.

Lawler said researchers don’t know for sure whether schools are driving the increases in Douglas County, but they suspect it to be the case, based on the timing of schools’ reopening. Douglas County may have lagged the rest of the state because most of its schools didn’t open at full capacity.

But no outbreaks in schools have been reported so far.

On Thursday, the Douglas County Health Department reported 86 cases of COVID-19 in K-12 schools during the previous 14 days, involving 46 staffers and 40 students. A total of 356 students and staff were in quarantine, and 438 were monitoring for symptoms.

Charles Sepers, chief public health officer at the Columbus-based East Central District Health Department, said the department is not seeing evidence of transmission in schools. He hears the same from other health directors in their regular calls.

But what happens outside school may be another matter. A sleepover in Nance County was linked to more than a dozen quarantines and a number of cases.

“The thing is, you can’t control what people do when they go home,” Sepers said.

Lawler said the lack of evidence of transmission in schools may be because officials are only looking for — and testing — kids with symptoms. Anecdotally, he said, local researchers are hearing of cases in which kids aren’t being taken for testing.

The key to keeping kids in school, he said, will be to keep them in masks and at a safe distance apart.

“Everybody wants kids in school,” he said. “Certainly people in public health and medicine understand school, for a variety of reasons, is critical for kids. But you have to find a balance that allows you to do that as much as possible without driving widespread transmission.”

Sepers said four schools in the East Central District, which covers Platte, Colfax, Nance and Boone Counties, started the school year without mask policies in place. As of late September, three of the four had adopted them.

Overall, Sepers said, gatherings and family clusters appear to be contributing to an increase of cases in the district.

A month ago, the district was averaging five cases a day. A week ago, it was up to 16.5 cases a day on a seven-day rolling average. On Sept. 25, the district had 167 active cases, the highest number since May. Other rural areas are seeing similar patterns, Sepers said.

Convincing people to wear masks has been a challenge, he said. Some people don’t think that they’re effective, while others see them as interfering with their civil liberties.

“I think we’re all facing the same struggle,” he said. “It’s just now made it to rural America.”

Lawler said people need to take recommended precautions.

“We know what to do. We know what works. If we can do that, we can easily manage suppression of transmission and allow the things that we know need to happen, like kids going to school.”


Videos: Life in Nebraska amid the pandemic

Nebraskans have shown a wealth of emotions while facing the coronavirus pandemic. We have unleashed a wave of creativity to adapt in the world of social distancing. 

Watch a few bright moments our staff has collected while telling the story of this unprecedented period in history. 

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Kyle and Jess McMindes experience a social distancing wedding on Saturday, April 25, 2020. About 75 cars full of family and friends surprised …

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