Monterey Downs economic report — a lot of big ifs.

A glossy flyer landed in Seaside mailboxes last week, showing an abandoned, graffiti-covered building on the former Fort Ord. “When Fort Ord closed, 28 public agencies requested portions of the land for redevelopment,” it states. “Monterey Downs is on land no one chose.”

The flyer bills the project as a makeover for Seaside, transforming the old Army blight into a thriving cultural center. The photos show ethnically diverse kids swimming and playing soccer, gray-haired white guys playing cards, families biking and hiking, smiling young women listening to music at a cafe, a packed concert arena. And, of course, horses – one ridden by a grinning child, more racing with jockeys on their backs.

Seaside city staff are now considering the fifth draft of Monterey Downs’ fiscal and economic analysis, which makes the same promise as the flyer: to invigorate a city still struggling 21 years after Fort Ord closed.

Monterey Downs is a proposed mixed-use development including a horse racetrack, indoor arena, hotel, commercial district and housing. It’s sited on 550 acres, mostly within unincorporated Monterey County but also partially in Seaside.

The city is the lead planning agency, and has taken steps toward annexing the entire property if the development proceeds. But a 2010 agreement guaranteeing a land transfer has expired, meaning the county Board of Supervisors could still decide to scuttle the annexation.

Assuming the whole project ends up within city bounds, the report estimates Monterey Downs will bring Seaside almost $3.6 million per year through higher taxes. But the city will also spend more on police, fire and recreation services.

Just how much those expanded services will cost depends on how the city structures them. Consultant Willdan Financial Services pins the price tag from $1.6 million (if the city contracts with Monterey County Regional Fire) to $2.9 million (if Seaside builds a new fire station). That pencils out to a city revenue bump of roughly $700,000-$1.9 million a year once the project is built.

The estimated economic impact is magnitudes larger. Willdan calculates Monterey Downs will generate almost $262 million for the Seaside economy during the 10-year construction period. Most of that ($199 million) would be direct purchases of labor, goods and services; another $63 million would be indirect and induced impacts, or ripple effects. Once the project is fully built, Willdan estimates it’ll generate $26 million in economic output within Seaside each year.

The direct impact estimates, however, are based on data provided by Monterey Downs. “Willdan has not audited the data,” the report states, “but has independently verified it through comparison to other projects in California.”

The report also uses visitation estimates provided by Monterey Horse Park, a nonprofit that would own and operate a 110-acre horse boarding, training and competition facility within Monterey Downs.

“Always good to rely on development stooges for numbers!” Michael Salerno, a vocal critic of Monterey Downs, writes by email.

Monterey Downs developer Brian Boudreau and Chief Operating Officer Beth Palmer did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Monterey Horse Park representatives could not be reached by deadline.

Seaside Mayor Ralph Rubio, who’s spoken favorably about Monterey Downs, declines to comment on the economic impact report before it’s presented to the City Council.

Councilman Jason Campbell, a project critic, also says he’ll wait to see the final report. “There are a lot of things that I do hope we get clarification on,” he adds.

The city’s contract project manager, Teri Wissler Adam, says city staff are still reviewing the draft – which may not be the last one, despite its label as “final.”

“The applicant has named it all kinds of things,” she says. “They may think they’re done. I gave up on schedules a long time ago.”