A 25-year regional transportation plan is in the works for three counties.

It’s that time of the decade again when, by state mandate, the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments, or AMBAG, zooms out to 30,000-feet. It’s time to draft a 25-year regional transportation and community plan, aimed at preparing the region for 2045, when the population is projected to hit 870,000 residents.

The goal-setting plan, called the 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy, is drafted and approved by the agency every four years. It estimates future regional growth and highlights proposed transportation projects. Goals range from relatively fleshed-out proposals, such as the Fort Ord Regional Trail and Greenway project (FORTAG) to more nebulous values, such as increased housing near jobs and transit.

Where the plans aren’t inter-county they are at least inter-jurisdictional within a county, such as the Monterey-Salinas Transit’s proposed Surf Line, a six-mile bus-only corridor spanning from Marina to Seaside. However, the goals can sometimes require specific land-use changes, over which AMBAG has no authority. This means the agency has to rely on coordination and participation across a vast array of jurisdictions and different government entities. Everyone has to get on board, which has some in the community wondering how solid this plan could be, especially if it requires changes to zoning or general community plans.

“With only AMBAG cracking the whip and not the state, it seems like an insurmountable goal,” Carmel City Councilmember Jeff Baron said during a May 10 AMBAG public workshop.

Heather Adamson, AMBAG’s planning director, told community members the state is trying to give itself more authority over how communities grow, which could eventually help these long-range plans come to fruition. Currently, the state’s main mechanism for influencing local land use is withholding transportation funding. Until the state has more power, achieving the goals will rely on the coordination of local governments.

“It will come down to local jurisdictions stepping up and helping, particularly on the housing side and working with transportation partners on siting new transit stops and providing access,” Adamson said. “Both [housing and transportation] strategies would need to be implemented by someone other than AMBAG.”

AMBAG is scheduled to release a draft plan by late 2021 and approve its 2045 plan by June 2022.