A look at the surprise favorite, the long shot and the loose cannon.

Editor’s note: Weekly contributor Shane Mason played golf on scholarship at Pepperdine before studying nuclear nonproliferation at now-Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He currently spends most of his time in a Washington, D.C. cubicle calculating the likelihood of world cataclysm, but he still follows the PGA tour closely and can also calculate who’s got the best chance in a field stacked with contenders. Which is what he does here.

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The Favorite

Shortly after Jim Furyk joined the Tour in 1995, golf funny man and sportscaster David Feherty said that his unorthodox swing looked like an octopus falling out of a tree. But 20 years, 14 Tour wins and $61 million in prize money later, Furyk is the one laughing now.

Currently ranked seventh in the official world golf rankings, the 44-year-old is enjoying some of the most consistent golf of his career, especially when it counts. Furyk finished in the top 15 in every major tournament last year, closing with a 67 at the U.S. Open, 65 at the British Open and 66 at the PGA. Despite the steady play, however, the nine-time Ryder Cupper hasn’t been able to convert white-hot form into cold first-place cash.

Expect that drought to end this rainy weekend. Pebble’s tiny greens demand precision, and Furyk is a ball-striking machine. He ranked fourth in driving accuracy and 12th in greens in regulation last season.

He also knows how to handle the nasty weather you can find on coastal links. At the British Open, where the weather is often wet and bone-chilling, Furyk has finished in the top five an astonishing five times, including last year in Liverpool.

If you want to watch Furyk this week, you’ll find him somewhere in the middle of the fairway – and in the winner’s circle.

The Long Shot

It’s often said that the first thing you should do after becoming a father is win your third AT&T Pro-Am. Wait, that’s never been said. But Dustin Johnson could do just that by hoisting the hardware this week at Pebble.

Johnson and fiancé Paulina (née, Paulina Gretzky – yep, daughter of hockey legend Wayne) became parents on Jan. 19 to son Tatum, and a dubya would give the South Carolina native a spot next to Jack Nicklaus and Johnny Miller with three career AT&T wins.

Johnson will have to knock some serious rust off his putter this week if he’s to perform the 17-mile hat trick. The eight-time Tour champion is playing only his second event after returning from a six-month hiatus, which he claimed was taken for “personal reasons.” An earnest public relations campaign, including a recent Sports Illustrated interview with father-in-law/“The Great One” Gretzky, attempts to fend off rumors the 30-year-old enjoys nightclubs more than country clubs.

Partier or Puritan, Johnson’s formula has worked like a charm here. D.J. followed up his rain-shortened win in ’09 with a victory lap the very next year, firing 64s in rounds one and three, and hanging on for a 74 and a one-shot win.

After a finishing T-55 in 2011 and freakishly missing the cut in 2012, Johnson got back on the horse with a runner-up showing last year that included a final-round 66. Based on that track record, the guy is a great dark horse pick to be in the winner’s circle by week’s end.

The Loose Cannon

If you want to follow an even-keeled golfer plod quietly around the links this week, don’t follow Patrick Reed.

In just over two full seasons on tour, the 25-year-old Texan has garnered praise for his play and serious grief for his antics. While racking up four PGA wins, Reed was criticized for shushing and taunting European fans at last year’s Ryder Cup, dropping a homophobic slur after missing a putt in China and comparing himself to all-time legends.

Yikes. And that’s just the weird stuff on the course. A new book that profiles young PGA stars alleges he was kicked off the University of Georgia golf team after his freshman year for stealing, and reports have come out suggesting that he’s recently estranged from his parents.

Yikes again. Nevertheless, the kid has four Tour wins, and starts the week as the 16th ranked player in the world.

The man may be a hot mess at times, but right now his game is equally hot. Reed is coming off a win at the winners-only Hyundai Championship on Kauai, where he never posted higher than 69 and won in a playoff over last year’s AT&T champion Jimmy Walker.

Reed has a good record on the Peninsula, too, finishing seventh and 13th in his last two appearances. If Reed can avoid the personal life double-bogey, look for the young wild card at the top of Pebble’s leaderboard come Sunday.