The art and science of forecasting the weather.

Weather forecasting: An art and a science.

Today, good afternoon. 

Yesterday was not such a good afternoon—Sunday was not a day of rest. It was not a day to relax and play old love songs.

The community was amped, on high alert. For the 24 hours preceding, officials and so many of us were activating safety precautions in preparation for a major storm headed directly toward us from the south, remnants of Tropical Storm Genevieve. Fire lines were cut as contingencies to save homes in the event of a major wind shift—and a fire direction shift. Mandatory evacuations were ordered in Carmel Valley Village, San Benancio, Corral de Tierra, and more. “Go boxes” were packed, artwork and precious items moved to safe harbors.

Genevieve is a pretty name. When I first heard the storm name, it reminded me of “Guinevere,” one of the most adored songs from the Crosby, Stills & Nash debut album, released in 1969, a song about three different women David Crosby loved, and I started humming it by a different name. But yesterday, many of us were hoping to not meet Genevieve. 

Around 4pm Sunday, I spoke to a briefer for Flight Service, the national weather service that provides the most comprehensive available weather forecasts for pilots. The forecast didn’t look good, not at all.

A low pressure was rapidly approaching from the south, at that time over the Paso Robles area, expected to bring convective activity all around: lightning and thunder. The winds were forecast to be lower than had been forecast earlier in the day—at one point, it was a potential high of 65 mph gusts—but nonetheless, they were forecast to be erratic and gusty beginning at 5pm, and lasting up to 24 hours.

Well, here we are 24 hours later with good news: The erratic winds, lightning and thunder missed us, there was not a major wind shift, and both the Carmel Fire and River Fire stayed relatively in place. Evacuation orders and warnings in some areas have been lifted. 

Around 5pm last night, I looked at the weather radar and saw a strong band both to the east and west of us, over the Central Valley and over the ocean. 

Genevieve missed us. The forecasters were wrong.

Weather forecasters are serious scientists and technicians. They measure a variety of data points and extrapolate the best they can, and then make their predictions accordingly. The data comes from satellite imagery, humidity measurements, infrared images, temperatures taken at the surface and the upper atmosphere, and more. It’s real science, in real time. 

And as Sunday reminded us, even in this highly technological age, weather forecasting remains an art. They can see how the barometric pressure is rising and falling throughout the region they’re studying, they can anticipate how one weather system will interact with another, they can receive and analyze up-to-the-minute reports, but that doesn’t mean their forecasts prove accurate. 

It’s similar to predicting love, like in those Crosby lyrics—sometimes there’s smooth winds, sunny days. And other times, erratic, gusty, winds, updrafts and downdrafts, tumultuous conditions.

Here’s a special toast to the forecasters yesterday for getting it wrong. This time, in David Crosby’s words, we shall be free: “Seagulls circle endlessly / I sing in silent harmony / We shall be free.”

Our preexisting disasters remain—three concurrent wildfires, destroying homes, infrastructure and wildlands. Weather aside, there’s still much to worry about. We’re not done yet. 

-Bradley Zeve, Founder & CEO, bradley@mcweekly.com