That water memo wasn’t the only Monterey Downs document we got.

Last weekend, as detailed online and in a print news story (p. 15), the Weekly was given exclusive access to a confidential attorney memo accidentally released as part of a sweeping Public Records Act request by the activist group Keep Fort Ord Wild.

The attorneys confirmed what Seaside officials already knew but apparently didn’t want to admit: There’s not enough water to build the project to completion. Not now, maybe not ever, and the developers shouldn’t bank on imaginary water.

The release of that memo started a chain reaction. The lawyers who wrote it asked that we not write about it, at least until they could figure out how their confidential advice came into the public sphere. We let them know we had it and gave them a time frame to respond, but we weren’t asking permission.

Our attorney advised us to publish it as quickly as we could, on the off chance those other attorneys sought an injunction to delay or prevent us from doing so.

The latest reaction in the chain came Dec. 16. The day before, Seaside City Clerk Lesley Milton had sent a notice to our legal section that the Downs draft environmental impact report (EIR) would be released for public comment Friday, Dec. 19. But after our story went online, Milton rescinded the notice on orders from City Manager John Dunn, buying time for the city and its consultants to make sure the points in that confidential memo were adequately incorporated into the draft EIR.

That’s good – and somewhat scary. Because in a sea of documents, we happened upon a very interesting one that was marked confidential. If the city is now concerned that issues raised in the memo weren’t properly addressed in the draft EIR, what else should we be concerned about?

The answer, at least in part, can be found in another Downs document the Weekly obtained from a reliable source late last week. This one is the latest draft, dated November, of the Monterey Downs fiscal and economic impact analysis. A version of this report was released last month, but it lacked many of the details in this update.

From this draft, written by Monterey Downs consultants Willdan Financial Services, we know now what the phasing of the project looks like and how much money the developers expect it will generate.

Some of those new details should give the city pause.

In March, the report stated that at buildout, the project will generate about $1.8 million annually for the city. The updated figure is $1.2 million. In the project’s first two phases, the city will actually lose money: $226,432 and $22,434, respectively. The numbers go negative again in phases five and six, but the net total is the $1.2 million gain.

The project will indirectly generate about $32.1 million in economic output during a 10-year construction period, the report states; and once complete, it will indirectly generate $2.7 million. By that time, Downs will employ 1,743 people in sectors such as hotel, restaurant and retail work, the report finds. Another 1,015 will have equestrian-related jobs.

All well and good, except for a few things: The project’s first two phases are home construction, and the third phase includes an office and hotel. It’s not until phase four that goodies like retail and restaurants come in, along with more homes and apartments. And phase six, the final one – that’s the horse track.

Here’s the rub: The buildout will take 17 years, not 10. “Look at the phasing map,” a source tells me. “It calls for a 13-year buildout, but they won’t be able to start for four years after they get their entitlements because regulators – the Environmental Projection Agency and the California Department of Toxic Substances – haven’t cleared the property.”

Once the draft EIR is released – and rumor has it the city will release the economic report at the same time, a little smoke-and-mirrors bit to get people excited about all those construction jobs even though there’s no water – a 60-day public review process begins.

Expect those 60 days to fly by as we parse out the real endgame for Monterey Downs.

Mary Duan is the Weekly’s editor. Reach her at mary@mcweekly.com or follow her at twitter.com/maryrduan