What California can learn from Houston, Texas when it comes to building enough housing.

California’s homeless census this year confirmed what most already suspected: Homelessness, already at emergency levels before the Covid-19 pandemic, had grown worse. CalMatters found that the state’s homeless population had increased by more than 22,000 people – a nearly 15-percent jump – between 2020 and 2022. And that is almost certainly a significant undercount.

No wonder, then, that the prevailing mood in California is one of frustration. Over the past two years, the state has committed $14 billion to homelessness. Most of that money has gone to “Housing First” programs, which prioritize getting homeless people into permanent homes instead of mandatory treatment. Yet homelessness in the state continues to rise.

That’s led to a degree of cynicism regarding Housing First policies. Some cities, Los Angeles and Sacramento among them, have returned to a policing-first strategy, making it illegal to camp.

To better understand why California hasn’t been able to reduce homelessness, it helps to look at a place that has. From 2011 to 2020, Houston, Texas cut its homelessness in half. Houston’s Coalition for the Homeless has placed more than 25,000 unhoused people into permanent housing; its success made it into a national model.

A new report released Dec. 8 by California YIMBY explores why. The title, “Housing Abundance as a Condition for Ending Homelessness: Lessons From Houston, Texas” gives it away: Houston’s success was predicated on a vast supply of low-cost housing. Because housing in Houston is cheaper and more plentiful, the city’s Housing First efforts are far more successful. The city has built new housing units at an annual rate of 9 or 10 per 1,000 residents, while development in California cities has consistently failed to keep up with population growth.

This has several implications for Houston’s homeless services system. It has kept homelessness from getting so bad that the Coalition can’t keep up. As a substantial body of research has demonstrated, housing unaffordability is the primary driver of homelessness.

Second, Houston’s homeless services system has a much easier time developing and acquiring housing. The Housing First model can only work when homeless services agencies actually have enough units to meet their clients’ needs.

Abundant, low-cost housing in Houston is no accident. The city allows most development through “by-right” instead of “discretionary” permitting – meaning local officials don’t get veto power over individual projects that otherwise meet the prerequisites for approval. California should follow Houston’s example and continue to legalize more housing development.

California doesn’t need to follow Houston’s precise development path. Our cities can accommodate millions more residents – they just need to legalize more and denser housing. There is no need to sprawl out into previously undeveloped natural lands.

Houston’s example teaches us that progress is possible, and that Housing First works.

NED RESNIKOFF is California YIMBY’s policy director.