As climate change intensifies, we need technological interventions, even with political strings attached.

Did the Earth’s climate just cross the Rubicon? It feels that way given all the extreme weather events across the globe. From electricity generation to safe drinking water, extreme weather is forcing us to craft durable solutions for these problems. It is time to think outside of the box.

In the arid climate of the Arabian Gulf, access to drinking water is a long-time climate-related challenge. With ample access to seawater, desalination efforts have been a tried and tested method. The UAE is home to one of the world’s largest aquifers of desalinated water. The reserve sits under the Liwa Desert and contains nearly 26 billion liters of water that can provide about 100 million liters of water per day in case of emergency. Desalination is effective but costly – each plant costs more than $1 billion to build and uses an enormous amount of energy to maintain.

In recent years, cloud seeding has exploded in popularity across the Middle East. While the effectiveness of cloud seeding is still a matter of debate, governments from Morocco to the UAE are investing heavily in cloud seeding programs to secure water resources. Ethiopia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have recently started large-scale cloud seeding operations. As the regional leader in the technology, the UAE has invested millions.

In a land without water, artificially creating clouds is one way to create rain. Cloud seeding uses chemicals such as silver iodide that quickly starts the rapid formation of ice crystals, which turn into clouds and produce rain.

Since the technology was created in 1946, scientists have noted instances where cloud seeding decreases the number of clouds in the sky. Israel, a pioneer in cloud seeding, stopped its program in 2021. The country had been cloud seeding for nearly 50 years but only saw a marginal gain in precipitation. In 2019, cloud seeding was blamed for creating such heavy rains in the UAE that some neighborhoods flooded in Dubai.

While cloud seeding might be less effective then desalination, it is much cheaper and does not require access to the ocean. That is appealing for lower-income countries.

A delicate dynamic is taking shape between wealthy and poor countries with water insecurity.

There is an economic calculus at work that could define more than just the future of climate. China has the world’s most ambitious cloud seeding program; they might be able to refine the technology and make it more efficient. If that were to happen, Chinese cloud seeding technology will be quickly exported throughout emerging markets. Beijing has a long track record of using infrastructure to establish geopolitical power. It might soon use water technology to the same end.

Given the scope of the climate crisis, efforts to improve novel technologies will certainly help. While it is important to be aware of how any technology can be weaponized to achieve political goals, we need to find solutions – political or not – to the climate crisis.

JOSEPH DANA is editor-in-chief of emerge85. He was previously Monocle’s Istanbul bureau chief. This story first appeared in The Arab Weekly.