Without more water, attorneys say, Monterey Downs could be sunk.

Attorneys considered the memo so sensitive, they stamped each of its 16 pages “Confidential.” But it boils down to what we already knew: The city of Seaside doesn’t have enough water to supply the proposed Monterey Downs development on the former Fort Ord.

As the Weekly reported online Dec. 15, the July 18 memo to city staff from Los Angeles law firm Richards, Watson & Gershon – accidentally released to activist group Keep Fort Ord Wild in response to a Public Records Act request – raises doubts Monterey Downs can be developed as proposed.

The dry prognosis isn’t a surprise. A November 2012 assessment by Marina Coast Water District estimates the 550-acre project, including housing and a horse racetrack, needs 853 acre-feet of water per year. The city has already committed 786 of its 1,013 available acre-feet to other projects. Marina Coast, which serves Fort Ord, has put plans to expand its own water supply on hold.

The secret memo frames the shortfall in more dire terms. The attorneys find the water-supply analysis in the draft environmental impact report (EIR), which has yet to be made public after a 14-month delay, is missing key points: exactly how much water Monterey Downs will need, where that water will come from and what the developers will do if two big water-supply proposals – a regional desalination plant and a groundwater recycling system – fall through.

City staff had asked the firm to weigh in on some questions. Can the city use the developer’s own water supply figures? (Yes, the attorneys replied.) Does the draft EIR have to include a specific water demand, or can it be a range? (As precise a figure as possible, they advised.) How should the city present its remaining water supply as it relates to future projects? (The water has to actually be there, or the projects can’t happen.) Does the city need to deal with the water issue before Monterey Downs can break ground? (Yep.)

One of the attorneys, Serita Young, asked the Weekly not to publish details from the memo. She didn’t respond to calls and emails after the Weekly published anyway.

In another twist: The city clerk sent a notice to the Weekly’s Classified section, announcing the Monterey Downs draft EIR would be made public Friday, Dec. 19 – then withdrew the announcement.

The city’s contract project manager, Teri Wissler Adam, says the delay was the result of the Weekly’s Dec. 15 blog post. “The city wanted to take another look at the water section of the EIR,” she says.