It’s truth or consequences time for the county and cities facing a tight state housing deadline.

Like Willy Wonka, in the world of California’s cities and counties, a housing plan that’s been certified by the state’s Department of Housing and Community Development is as good as a golden ticket – one that means escaping potentially serious consequences like fines, civil penalties and forced development projects. Five cities in Monterey County are poised to win tickets and three cities may be on the cusp. Four cities and the County of Monterey are not so fortunate.

The County, Gonzales, Greenfield and King City are hopelessly behind since they have not yet submitted draft plans, called housing elements, to HCD under the state’s Regional Housing Needs Allocation process, which seeks to significantly increase the number of housing units planned for between 2023 and 2031. The deadline to achieve a certified housing element is Dec. 15, which would have required submitting draft elements to HCD several months ago, giving the state agency up to 90 days to review the drafts and send them back for changes necessary to achieve certification.

Three cities – Monterey, Sand City and Soledad – submitted their housing elements by early fall and, depending on when they receive comments from HCD, might avoid penalties. Pacific Grove submitted on Nov. 3, and combined with the others that have yet to submit, they cannot make the deadline and will be subject to what’s known as the “Builder’s Remedy,” part of the California Housing Authority Act passed in 1982. The remedy allows a developer to submit plans for a multi-unit development, regardless of zoning, where at least 20 percent of units are designated for low-income households or 100 percent are designated for moderate-income households. Under Builder’s Remedy, cities and the county would have limited ability to deny the projects. There is one such project of 105 units reportedly proposed at the mouth of Carmel Valley within unincorporated County of Monterey.

There are other consequences for not meeting HCD deadlines, including: a shortened time period to complete necessary rezoning to allow for more units; loss of state funding for things like affordable housing, transportation and infrastructure projects; fines of between $10,000-$100,000 per month; and legal action that includes a court-appointed monitor to bring a housing element into compliance.

The five cities on their way to certification are Carmel, Del Rey Oaks, Marina, Salinas and Seaside, but it’s probable none will make the Dec. 15 deadline. They will be eligible for a 120-day grace period, which means they would have until April 15; each has received HCD comments and are working to amend their plans to get certified ahead of the deadline.

“I’m not losing any sleep over a nine-page letter,” Carmel Director of Community Development Brandon Swanson says of the HCD comments he received Nov. 1. He likened HCD’s comments to “the state wanting to see more of our work,” or more data and rationalization for how the city is planning for an additional 405 units.