Higher property crime rates as state unpacks prisons.

A rise in property crime coincides with California’s massive effort to reduce its prison population, a new study says.

Property crimes like auto theft and burglary rose 7.6 percent between 2011 and 2012, the first year of the prison reform measure known as “realignment,” according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California. There was also an uptick in violent crime, but the study found no correlation between that and reform.

However, the study says there’s “robust evidence” realignment is related to the property crime spike.

Monterey County’s law enforcement officials aren’t surprised. They predicted crime would increase as low-level offenders are kept in the community, either in jail or under another form of supervision, instead of state prison.

“We could see it coming,” Sheriff Scott Miller says. “Looks like it’s arrived.”

District Attorney Dean Flippo says property crime rates are up countywide.

“I was hearing anecdotally from a number of police chiefs that they were getting killed on burglaries,” he says.

A DA analysis compares crime rates from approximately two years before realignment to the two years following. Salinas saw the most dramatic rise; its property crime rate – which encompasses burglary, auto theft and larceny – jumped 16.2 percent. The cities of the Peninsula, including Monterey and Seaside, saw a 2.4 percent increase. The Peninsula also saw burglaries specifically rise some 25 percent. Part of this may be attributed to a rash of burglaries – 19 of them in 19 days – in Carmel Valley.

California started unpacking its prisons in October 2011 due to federal court order. Realignment shifted several responsibilities from the state to counties. Now people who are convicted of crimes that aren’t considered serious, sexual or violent are sent to local jails instead of state prisons. Parolees are put under the supervision of county probation instead of state parole, and parole violators are held locally instead of prison. Monterey County has seen more than 1,000 of those offenders.

There’s evidence, the PPIC study says, that some inmates have been displaced to make way for realigned offenders. Flippo puts it this way: “County jails are jammed. They get out.”

Meanwhile Monterey County’s Probation Department has stepped up, expanding its electronic monitoring program. It also prioritizes offenders based on risk and partners with Monterey County Behavioral Health to treat clients. Because PPIC’s study only looks at the first year of realignment, PPIC says county efforts to make realignment work may shift crime trends looking forward.

But, as more data comes out, a conclusion on realignment is far from final. A December study from the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation says the first year of realignment saw a lower rate of arrest for parolees and probationers than the previous year. It went from 59 percent of people being rearrested to 56 percent.

“I still don’t think we’re at a place where we can say the increase in crime is directly related to offenders who are realigned,” says Nancy Hatton, the county Probation Department’s adult division director. She adds, “It’s important to know crime was on an uptick before realignment happened.”

See a chart of the DA’s analysis of county crime trends online.