As Monterey County moves forward into reopening, health officials expect Covid-19 cases to increase.

As Monterey County reopens for business, Covid-19 has not gone away. In fact, County Health Officer Edward Moreno expects to see an increase in the number of cases as more people move about. “We’re still in a pandemic. That’s going to happen in a pandemic,” he told reporters in a press briefing on June 8, the day after he’d cleared hotels, gyms and bars to reopen with certain modifications. (Those sectors may reopen starting Friday, June 12.)

“We are going to see increased numbers as we move forward, but there is a real need to have people get back to work and have kids and youth get more engaged again for their health and well-being,” Moreno said. “There is a balance we’re going to have to try to find.”

For county and state health officials, that balance is measured largely through hard numbers. The state has built a tracker for various data points, reported county by county (viewable at covid19.ca.gov/roadmap-counties). As commerce resumes, Moreno is watching the number of cases per population, deaths per population and medical equipment availability at local nursing homes and hospitals. Moreno emphasizes that it’s not about preventing the spread of the virus at this point, but ensuring that local hospitals can keep up; if they can’t, there is a chance he’d again issue stricter shelter-in-place orders, closing businesses again.

“The indicators I’m really focusing on are the ability to protect people at a high risk of Covid-19 and our ability to maintain surge capacity at our hospitals,” Moreno said. “In those two indicators, we’re still doing OK. We haven’t had a significant increase in hospital bed occupancy.”

As of press time, Monterey County reported 12 hospitalized patients, a number that has remained stable over the past few weeks, fluctuating by one or two patients day by day. At the time the California Department of Public Health reviewed and approved Monterey County’s reopening plan, the largest hospitalized patient count on a single day over the preceding two-week period was 11, on May 19.