An Oscar preview the industry deserves.

The Oscars are Sunday, Feb. 22, at 8pm. Neil Patrick Harris is the host, and based on his work hosting the Tony Awards, he should be a good one. Harris will perform an original song-and-dance number called “Moving Pictures” that was written by Frozen Oscar winners Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, and there’ll be plenty more singing with John Legend and Common performing their Oscar-nominated song Glory from Selma. Hopefully we’ll get some unforced moments too.

And oh yeah, there will be winners and losers. Here’s a breakdown of the big six categories on Oscar night, including predictions I’ll brag about if I’m right and will never mention again if I’m wrong.

The Best Picture race is shaping up much like that of the 2010 campaign, in which The Social Network won most of the early critics’ honors while The King’s Speech ran roughshod over the Guild awards and Oscars. This year Boyhood took many of the early accolades, while Birdman has been coming on strong of late. I have to lean towardBirdman having the edge.

This is a tight race that could go any number of ways, especially given the strength and quality of the other nominees. The Grand Budapest Hotel is an absolute delight and probably director Wes Anderson’s best film; Selma is a triumph of acting and sentiment with a strong message; The Imitation Game has two acting nominations and is very well made, and the same can be said for The Theory of Everything. Whiplash, a high-energy crash course in pedagogy and the peril of blind ambition, was my pick for the best film of 2014. American Sniper is a runaway box office hit. It comes down to this: As we’ve learned in the past, Academy members vote with their hearts above anything else. And I think Boyhood will win their hearts, so Boyhood will win even though Whiplash should win.

Often Best Picture and Best Director go hand-in-hand, so one would expect Boyhood director Richard Linklater to take home the Oscar. But not so fast: Based on its guild award victories, one has to expect Birdman to win a major award, and its best shot is for director Alejandro González Iñárritu. The gimmick of the film appearing to have been shot in one long take is technically masterful – you can expect the film to win best cinematography as well – and the story is an apt commentary on industry issues. Also nominated for best director are Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game and Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. When it’s all said and done, Iñárritu will win even though Tyldum should win.

The acting awards are easier to predict. For Supporting Actor, J.K. Simmons is a lock for his turn as the sadistic music teacher who tortures an aspiring drummer played by Miles Teller in Whiplash. And with Simmons clearly the person who will win and should win, fellow supporting actor nominees Edward Norton for Birdman, Mark Ruffalo forFoxcatcher, Ethan Hawke for Boyhood and Robert Duvall for The Judge are no doubt honored just to be nominated.

Supporting actress also has a clear favorite: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood. Her performance as a single mom who makes poor decisions is an emotional highlight of the film, and she’s a respected actress who’s paid her dues. Arquette is up against Emma Stone in Birdman, Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game, Laura Dern in Wild and Meryl Streep’s 19th overall acting nomination, this time for Into the Woods. It’s a solid category, but Arquette will win and should win.

For best actress it looks like it’s finally Julianne Moore’s year. Her phenomenal performance as a linguistics professor with early-onset Alzheimer’s in Still Alice is the fifth nomination of her career, and should be her first victory. Moore’s transition from a smart alpha woman into someone who can barely remember her children is heartbreaking. Also nominated for best actress are previous winners Reese Witherspoon for Wild and Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, as well as Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything and Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl. Pike was my favorite, but Moore will win.

And finally, best actor will come down to Eddie Redmayne as ALS-afflicted Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything and Michael Keaton as an actor looking to prove himself in Birdman. Both were fantastic, so here’s the question: Will the Academy go for the more physical performance with Redmayne, or the great comeback story of Keaton? This is a tough one, and it’s not made any easier with the strong work of fellow best actor nominees Bradley Cooper in American Sniper, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Gameand Steve Carell as we’ve never seen him before in Foxcatcher. This will be close, but Redmayne will win.

One final note: Remember to have fun! Of course you want your favorites to win, but some of the best movies ever made never did. Time has a way of righting the ship on Oscar injustice.