Who will (and who should) take home the most sought-after Oscars this year?

This is the first time in the 92-year history of the Academy Awards that four films received 10 or more nominations: The Irishman (10), 1917 (10), Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (10) andJoker (11). The reason for this is not just quality movies, but the schedule: With the Oscars two weeks earlier than they’ve ever been (Feb. 9), the timeline for nominations got pushed up to early January, meaning the time to watch contenders was limited.

Familiar names occupy the big nominations. The Academy has not solved its diversity issue; Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) is the only black acting nominee this year. Once again there’s no host, and once again we’re promised a three-hour broadcast. And once again, we’ll believe the latter only when it happens. Below I’ll go through the “big six” categories with my take on who should win – and my prediction on who will win.

Best Director is Sam Mendes’ to lose. His decision to shoot 1917 as if it’s one continuous take over two hours is as bold a creative choice as you’ll find, and he (along with likely Cinematography winner Roger Deakins) pulls it off extraordinarily well. If Mendes is upset it will be Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite, whose film is also nothing short of extraordinary. Also nominated are Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood), Todd Phillips (Joker), and Martin Scorsese (The Irishman). Will win: Mendes. Should win: Mendes.

All eyes are on Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor in Joker. He brings the origin of the DC Comics villain to life as a mentally ill man who’s wronged by society and seeks vengeance. Adam Driver was outstanding in Marriage Story, in which he plays a self-centered but loving father going through an ugly divorce. It’s great work. Both Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) earned their first nominations this year, and Leonardo DiCaprio rounds out the category for Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood. Will win: Phoenix. Should win: Driver.

For Supporting Actor, wow what a group this is. Tom Hanks is up for A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins is here for The Two Popes, and Al Pacino and Joe Pesci fromThe Irishman are here as well. Brad Pitt is the only nominee who hasn’t won an acting Oscar. He’ll add one soon – as in real soon – since he’s won all the major precursor awards and is almost certain to win for Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood. Will win: Pitt. Should win: Pitt.

Supporting Actress is similarly easy to predict, as Laura Dern is the runaway favorite. She’s terrific in Marriage Story as a divorce attorney who’s smart, savvy and forthright. She’s also well-respected and the consensus sentiment is that this is her time. Also nominated are herMarriage Story co-star, Scarlett Johansson, who is in this category for Jojo Rabbit; Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell; Florence Pugh for Little Women; and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Will win: Dern. Should win: Dern.

A prior Supporting Actress winner, Renee Zellweger, is the favorite to win Best Actress for her portrayal of Judy Garland in Judy (ironically, Garland lost both times she was nominated for an Oscar). Zellweger may not have looked exactly like Garland, but the voice, mannerisms, and impassioned singing made it an awesome performance. Scarlett Johansson was every bit Adam Driver’s equal (and then some) in Marriage Story, as she played a woman who didn’t always realize she was bitter, but knew she wasn’t happy. It’s outstanding work in what has turned out to be a banner year for her. Also nominated are Cynthia Erivo for Harriet, Saoirse Ronan forLittle Women and previous winner Charlize Theron for Bombshell. Will win: Zellweger. Should win: Johansson.

And finally, Best Picture. There are nine nominees this year, and by virtue of winning both the Director’s Guild and Producer’s Guild awards, 1917 goes into the big night as the favorite. In fact, 10 of the last 12 Producer’s Guild winners won Oscar’s Best Picture. It’s not a sure thing, though. When the actors from Parasite came on stage to introduce a clip at the Screen Actor’s Guild awards, they received a standing ovation. The cast later won the SAG Ensemble award, which is the organization’s version of Best Picture.

Clearly there’s a lot of passionate love for Parasite, so it should not be underestimated. Coming into the award season many thought Best Picture would come down to The Irishman vs. Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood, but it hasn’t played out that way, though both are nominated here. Marriage Story was my number-one film of 2019, as the script and performances were second to none. Little Women, Joker, Jojo Rabbit and Ford v. Ferrari round out the category. Will win: 1917. Should win: Marriage Story.

THE 92ND ACADEMY AWARDS are at 5pm on Sunday, Feb. 9 on ABC.