Elections matter, more than ever in this era of misinformation.

The phrase “trust but verify” became famous in the United States courtesy of Ronald Reagan in 1987, upon signing a nuclear missile treaty with the Soviet Union. It’s a sensible principle, and one that I hear frequently among journalists. But in this world of misinformation, the “trust” part seems to have gone by the wayside. Increasingly, it seems that people are more interested in verifying their distrust, looking for proof the conspiracy theory is true – that secure election dropboxes are somehow being tampered with, that campaign workers are getting phone numbers of prospective voters in some nefarious way. (These are real questions we have recently received from readers.)

I’m in the camp of trusting that Monterey County Elections Department officials in Salinas are working their hardest to ensure every ballot is counted correctly (and yes, their tallying process is viewable to the public if you want to get in on the “verify” part).

I might not like all of the outcomes as they are reported, but I believe what they’re reported is an accurate tabulation of the vote. The physical way in which ballots are received, sorted, counted and reported is the banal behind-the-scenes of elections, but is also truly foundational to the functioning of our system. The staggering number of candidates across the country who don’t believe President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election – at least 370, according to news reports, and some 200 who have won – have made what was once a wild, fear-mongering conspiracy theory into something mainstream for the Republican Party.

I continue to look to the local for some consensus around the basic components of truth. While there were some pretty fringe candidates on Monterey County voters’ ballots, I’ve watched an election season dominated by substantive discussion about policy issues. (There are exceptions, of course, particularly in local school board elections.)

It’s hard to know which factors influence voters and encourage them to change their minds, but one thing we learn repeatedly is that polling doesn’t always tell the whole story.

Neither is campaign spending is not a guarantee. Joe Moses led the way in spending for his campaign for sheriff in the four-way primary and trailed in second place, and again for the Nov. 8 election (as of Oct. 22, he reported spending $376,909). Tina Nieto, who led by a landslide with 67 percent of the vote, reported spending $197,763. In the race for county supervisor in District 2, Regina Gage outspent Glenn Church $242,399 to $202,633, and in early returns, she trailed with 41 percent of the vote.

One of the things that is so extraordinary about this electoral system is that we don’t know the minds of each voter, the issues that do or don’t sway them, or the campaign messaging that works or doesn’t. Even when we think we know, it’s individual by individual that voters, whose choices all count equally, get to chart our collective future.

I like to wager on the outcomes of local elections, plus a few other things. It’s really my participation in a football pool that’s shown me how much outcomes are random. I know barely anything about football, and I don’t follow the NFL – but I like a good betting opportunity. Each week, I place a bet on which teams I think will win, game by game. Others in the pool tend to choose based on which team has a better record or a solid defense. I don’t know these things because I don’t follow football, so I use other metrics.

One year, I won a week based on superior mascots; once, based on better cities. This year the season is still young, and I already won a week based on my new criteria: which team hails from a state with better reproductive rights. (I rely on a map produced by the Center for Reproductive Rights, which color codes states based on abortion access.)

Fortunately, Californians said yes to reproductive rights and voted to approve Prop. 1, which enshrines access to abortion in the state constitution, with 65 percent of the vote as of Nov. 9.

This proposition was favored to pass, but nothing is guaranteed. Now, at least, access to reproductive rights in California are – and that’s something in an uncertain world.

SARA RUBIN is the Weekly’s editor. Reach her at sara@mcweekly.com or follow her at twitter.com/sarahayleyrubin