Predictions emerge for cinema’s holy night – the annual Academy Awards show.

2013 was a good year for cinema, with strong selections opening throughout the year. Yet, only 11 films received nominations in the six major categories discussed here, accounting for 34 total nominations, suggesting an unexpected lack of disparity between the top of the heap and the hundreds of films released in 2013.

The reasons are numerous: Deep pocket marketing campaigns earn preferential treatment for select titles, and a condensed screening schedule for voters forces movies with a true “wow” factor to pop out. Add in other factors and you have a celebration of big-name projects and movie stars we already know and love, with only a few newcomers.

At least one of those newcomers, Lupita Nyong’o from 12 Years A Slave, will win supporting actress. Her performance as Patsey was a true tour-de-force in a film full of harsh and haunting brutality. Nyong’o will have to beat Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), June Squibb (Nebraska), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine). On the strength of her win at the Screen Actor’s Guild Nyong’o should win and will win.

The lead actress category also has a clear frontrunner in Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. But for as great as Blanchett was, Amy Adams’ exotic elusiveness added allure to American Hustle, and the movie thrived in turn. It’s a smart, sexy performance that hits every note. Previous winners nominated include Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Dame Judi Dench (Philomena) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) – her 18th nod. Even though Adams gave the best performance, Blanchett will win.

SOME HAVE CALLED 12 YEARS A SLAVE THE SCHINDLER’S LIST OF SLAVERY.

In the lead actor category, Matthew McConaughey is the favorite for his portrayal of AIDS patient Ron Woodruff in Dallas Buyers Club. Set in the ’80s, McConaughey’s gaunt, pale and occasionally unlikeable Ron discards his prescribed treatment and pursues alternative methods with startling results – it all comes to fruition in the performance of McConaughey’s career. He’s up against Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave). Bale, who gained 40 pounds and shaved his head for Hustle, should win, though McConaughey will win.

McConaughey’s Dallas Buyers Club co-star, Jared Leto, is the fave for his supporting role as Rayon, a troubled cross-dressing AIDS patient. Leto is up against Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave) and Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street). Although Fassbender should win, Leto will win.

Director and picture Oscars go hand-in-hand most years. Last year was an exception – Ang Lee won director for Life of Pi while Argo took best picture. This year looks to do the same with Gravity’s Alfonso Cuaron, who invented the technology needed to simulate Sandra Bullock and George Clooney floating adrift in outer space. Contenders: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street). Respected as his colleagues are, Cuaron should win and will win.

Gravity doesn’t strike the emotional chord that’s often needed to win best picture. Given that actors comprise the largest branch of the Academy, and American Hustleis so actor-friendly, it has a legitimate chance. In contrast, some have called 12 Years A Slave the Schindler’s List of slavery, and justifiably so. It is an audacious picture that dares to show the unrelenting cruelty that remains a stain on American history. 12 Years A Slave should win and will win best picture.

THE 86TH ACADEMY AWARDS airs at 6pm Sunday, March 2 on ABC. Ellen DeGeneres is the host.