In wake of collapse fears, feds to assess anchovy populations.

During its November meeting yesterday, and in the wake of recent speculation about a West Coast anchovy collapse, the Pacific Fisheries Management Council directed federal scientists to undertake an assessment of anchovy populations as soon as possible.

The last assessment of anchovies—a key food source in the local marine ecosystem—goes all the way back to 1995, and a group of scientists that include retired National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist Alec MacCall have recently argued there is evidence of a widespread collapse of anchovies off California. 

This seems hard to believe given the masses of anchovies that have collected in Monterey Bay this year, but some activists argue that is where nearly all the anchovies are, and that the plenitude is a "mirage."

Nearly all of the 14,000 metric tons of anchovies landed in California this year have been caught in Monterey Bay, a number still well below the annual quota of 25,000 mt. 

But there are some who worry there might only be as little as 20,000 mt of anchovies left off California, including Paul Shively, Pacific project director for The Pew Charitable Trusts.

"New research," he writes in a Nov. 12 blog post, referring to a recent paper under peer review, "indicates that the California anchovy population has declined from a total estimated biomass of 1 million tons a decade ago to as low as 20,000 tons today."

There is also some circumstantial evidence to support the idea of the potential collapse: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sent a letter to PFMC in May, expressing concern about recent die-offs of seabirds that include formerly endangered California brown pelicans, and suggesting a decline in anchovies might be a factor. 

In Sausalito, The Marine Mammal Center reports it has rescued nearly 1,700 animals this year, the most in its 40-year history.

Diane Pleschner- Steele, executive director of the non-profit California Wetfish Producers Association, doesn't believe anchovies are collapsing, and thinks the recent study by MacCall and others is flawed because it relies on outdated data. Nonetheless, she's pleased with the council's move for an assessment.

"Even though landings are small, the anchovy fishery is very important to Monterey’s wetfish industry," she writes in a statement. "We all thank the Council for using science, not politics, in its decision. Council members recognized that a sound management decision requires that all evidence of recent anchovy recruitment be considered."

Despite yesterday's direction by the PFMC, NOAA Fisheries scientist Josh Lindsay says that in some ways, an anchovy assessment already began earlier this year. 

"Prior to much of the public interest in anchovy and the discussion at the council meeting, our NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center was already planning an assessment for anchovy and had begun to examine and coalesce the available data," he writes in an email. 

Lindsay indicates the anchovy assessment will likely be completed in fall 2016.